Open RAN still set for growth despite fading hopes for a multi-vendor future

Analyst firm Dell’Oro Group has published a new report forecasting mixed fortunes for Open RAN despite the rapid progress made to date. While steady growth outside of China is expected to see Open RAN account for 30 to 40 percent of revenues by 2028, the overall vendor landscape is likely to remain unchanged, even as more operators are set to deploy the technology.

In looking to incorporate more open, virtual, intelligent, and automated solutions into their networks, operators are increasingly turning to Open RAN to facilitate this move. However, challenges remain in delivering these benefits at scale over a multi vendor RAN, one of the key early promises of the technology. As a result, while Dell’Oro forecasts that overall Open RAN will account for about 25% of the RAN market by 2028, multi-vendor RAN is only expected to take less than a 10% share of the pie.

“Open RAN is happening, but this vision that Open RAN will significantly change the vendor dynamics is fading,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “With most of the leading RAN suppliers now committed to the latest O-RAN fronthaul interfaces, the question now is more about the timing and the adoption curve for the various RAN segments,” continued Pongratz.

In that respect North America is expected to lead the charge globally. This will partly be driven by the ongoing support provided by the US Government which views Open RAN as an important platform for technology innovation that can benefit US companies, but also as a diplomatic tool that can help further its longer term strategic goals, particularly with respect to China. 

This is in contrast to Europe which will only account for 15 to 20 percent of worldwide Open RAN revenues by 2028 and which has yet to see similar support from individual governments or the European Union, barring the UK who was first to align itself with the US in banning Chinese vendors from its national infrastructure and is funding a number of Open RAN projects in the country.